The latest edition of UK Energy and the Environment report from the Cambridge-based consultancy Cambridge Econometrics warned today the country is currently on track to miss its ambitious carbon emissions and renewable energy targets.

The report warns that the new coalition government must act urgently to ensure the UK meets its 2020 goal of reducing carbon emissions by 34%. Also, based on current trends it predicts that the UK will fall short of the 2020 target of generating 15% of energy from renewables, and will also fall 3% points short of its goal of generating 10% of the country's electricity from renewables by the end of this year.

The UK would need to source between 30% and 40% of its electricity from renewables by 2020 in order to meet the EU renewable energy target, given that the UK is unlikely to deliver a rapid increase in renewable heat and renewable fuel capacity. However, renewables will account for just 16.5% of the UK's electricity mix by 2020, if electricity demand grows between 0.75% and 1% each year to 2020.

As a result of this shortfall, the report forecasts the UK will fall short of its third carbon budget running from 2018-22 and will miss its legally-binding goal of a 34% reduction in carbon emissions by 2020 by around 2% points.

Russell Lerman, Managing Director at Envido said, "If the UK is to achieve the statutory goal of a 34% reduction in carbon emissions by 2020, the incoming government will need urgently not only to set out the details of the ambitious carbon-reduction policies it has inherited, but also move swiftly to their implementation."

Increased focus on the renewable heat and transport sectors is required

The report concludes that if the incoming government puts in place effective policies that promote the increased use of renewable energy in transport and for heat supply, and if the vehicle fuel efficiency targets in road transport are extended beyond 2015 as currently proposed, it seems quite likely that non-traded sector carbon emissions will move more in line with the carbon-budget target in the third 2018-22 period.

Both the renewable heat and transport sectors have been largely neglected compared to the level of policy support for renewable electricity, and no new incentives are expected to drive adoption of green heat and transport technologies until next year at the earliest.

www.envido.co.uk

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