In general, rare events, like the coronavirus pandemic, can create some of the following challenges to supply chains:

• Reluctance to receive raw materials/products from an impacted geographical location
• Sourcing issues, e.g. single source supply—especially damaging if the supply source is impacted and unable to satisfy demands
• Site(s) closure impacting production capabilities
• Transportation issues/disruptions
• Introduction of counterfeit material in the supply chain
• Lack of coordination and traceability in supply chain causing either significant build-up or shortage of inventory (bullwhip effect)

Solely relying on digital (information technology) solutions may not be adequate. Pharmaceutical manufacturers should also evaluate operational strategies to mitigate or minimize disruption impact.

Operational strategies to overcome supply chain disruptions include:

• Adopting multi-sourcing strategies, e.g. having a Tier 1 and a qualified Tier 2 supplier for the same material
• Allocating demands to or increasing capacities of other site(s)
• Evaluating alternate distribution channels and methods
• Managing safety stock by evaluating severity (length) and the likelihood of disruptions
• Sharing information in supply chains, investing in supplier development and collaboration with competitors

Multi-site sourcing and demand allocation:

Consider sourcing raw materials from multiple suppliers or working with one supplier that has manufacturing capabilities at multiple locations to reduce overall sourcing disruption risks. Using the same philosophy, also evaluate how to allocate production across multiple facilities, either within your own network or outsourcing to contract manufacturing organizations (CMOs). It is crucial for pharmaceutical manufacturers to continuously evaluate sourcing strategies in terms of site capabilities, risk profile, cost and any additional sourcing complexities.

To understand your network’s readiness to adapt to these changes, perform a gap/risk analysis using strategic facility planning (SFP) methods. SFP compares facility capacities (supply) to business needs (demands). It allows you to identify gaps and risks and perform scenario analysis. Complete this for every node within the supply chain network.

Contingency planning and efficiency improvement

Supply diversification has direct, and indirect costs associated with it. As a temporary stop-gap solution, you can use a supplier, or a production site not normally used to keep operations running. Generally, this strategy works for short-term disruptions. However, in the case of long-term disruptions, this can be cost-prohibitive. In either case, raw material or production pricing will be impacted. Thus, it is prudent to become cost-effective and lean by reducing inefficiencies in production processes, while improving the use of available (and in some cases more expensive) resources. Increasing operational efficiency, which should be a normal work-day goal, becomes even more important in days of a crisis, i.e., prolonged supply disruption.

Managing safety stock

Increasing safety stock can look like a straight-forward solution to mitigate risk. However, it can become significantly expensive and ineffective, especially when disruptions are longer than anticipated. To find the right safety stock balance, implement an adaptive inventory strategy. Adaptive inventory strategy pairs your risk profile based on severity and occurrence with ongoing detection of potential threats to supply continuity. This informs the realignment or adjustment of your existing inventory strategy. In the case of perishable goods inventory, additional variables come into play, making the detection and severity ranking even more complex.

Furthermore, estimating the right quantities of safety stock can be challenging. A special case of Monte Carlo simulations, i.e., Discrete Event Simulations (DES) can be used to overcome this challenge. DES has the capability to model uncertainty and variables inherent in process times, and perform ‘what-if’ analysis.

Supplier development and information sharing