June 5, 2007 - In a blunt assessment of the business operating context in 2027 – sponsored by Shell, Ford, Novo Nordisk, Vodafone, The Skoll Foundation and others – SustainAbility, Ltd., reports that not only will there be new rules for sustaining business success over the next twenty years, but that "the game itself is poised to change profoundly. There will be winners and losers; but there is no more business as usual."

More than two years in the making, Raising Our Game: Can We Sustain Globalization was released in London and D.C. last week and in Berlin today, and will be discussed at upcoming events in Sao Paolo on June 12, and New York, June 26-28.

The authors are from SustainAbility, widely known as the leading consultancy to the world's major multinationals on corporate responsibility and sustainability. It exposes the interplay of sustainable development and globalization that will define the future. "Navigating this terrain will challenge the global business community like nothing previously experienced," said co-author John Elkington.

The study depicts four alternate scenarios for the year 2027 in a card game format, where clubs, hearts, diamonds, and spades represent various combinations of environmental and societal wins and losses.

"Grounded in the hard realities that business and policy leaders face now and through 2027, Raising Our Game is neither a starry-eyed look at a rosy future, nor a "chicken little" prediction of inevitable calamity," said Jonathan Halperin, SustainAbility's Director of Research and Advocacy in Washington. "It is about the hard choices we face, and what they mean for us all down the road. As the stakes rise, innovation, entrepreneurship, and effectively sourcing ideas and talent from emerging economies will be essential to managing the worsening divides that now threaten global stability." These threats are catalogued in section three of the report.

The executive summary of Raising Our Game is below, and for the full report visit the following link: http://www.sustainability.com/raising-our-game/.

Raising Our Game: Can We Sustain Globalization?

Executive Summary

Interactions between the complexities of globalization and the evolving sustainability agenda will define markets and politics in the 21st century. This report reviews some of the key recent trends driving – and driven by - globalization. It looks at where these processes are likely to take us over the next two decades, and their implications for the corporate responsibility and sustainable development agenda.

Globalization – that is the freer movement of goods, services, ideas, and people around the world – is not a new phenomenon but has massively accelerated over the last two decades with 20% of the world GDP now being contributed by global trade. This acceleration has been driven by the opening up of new markets, the rapid evolution of technology and global connectivity, the growing prominence of developing countries, and the great surge in the number and reach of multinational businesses.

Today's globalized world has particular attributes: interconnected global financial markets with positive and negative consequences; unprecedented urbanization reflecting powerful underlying trends associated with the way people earn a living; growing divides and potentially explosive disparities between the rich and poor; challenges to diversity – in its biological, ecological, human, and social forms; climate and environmental insecurity; governance vacuums; and blessed unrest – the proliferation of networks dedicated to restoring the environment and fostering social justice.

New players are surging onto the globalization field. China and India with their impressive growth rates are powerfully influencing commodity markets and global trade, and catapulting new South–South trade relationships onto the global stage. Other emerging economies – like Brazil and South Africa – although not in the same league, are playing ever important regional and global roles. As their economic influence grows, developing countries are also trying to shift the rules of globalization in their favor. The economic growth has major sustainability consequences. China, India, Brazil, and Russia are collectively already responsible for 30% of global CO2 emissions.

While opportunities flourish, divides based on demographics, wealth, gender, nutrition, health, environmental resources, education, information, security, and governance continue to persist and in many cases worsen.

How will these trends play out? The report outlines a set of scenarios to visualize how the future might unfold.

As with most scenarios, it is likely that elements of each of them will emerge in different regions at different times, but together they point to six dimensions of the G.A.M.B.L.E. agenda:

SustainAbility

SustainAbility

Independent think tank and strategy consultancy. Experts in corporate responsibility and sustainable development. Advisors on market risks and opportunities.

More from SustainAbility